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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in North Carolina has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-83%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-winged Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-winged Warbler has collapsed in North Carolina: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Golden-winged Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±348.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±348.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±348.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.000.000.39
20210.000.000.39
20220.000.000.39
20230.000.000.39
20240.000.000.39

Golden-winged Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fontana319841968
Todd120191998
Waterville120102010
Kyle119961994
Pinelog120032002
Brevard119751968
Oteen119981984
Murphy120052005
Cullowhee119981974
Linville119961996

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

connecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.