BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-winged Warbler

ParulidaeForest birdsVermivora chrysoptera

Golden-winged Warbler has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
417RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Golden-winged Warbler

The Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 417 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 20 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Parulidae · Forest birds

Notable Golden-winged Warbler TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-winged Warbler. See the full index history below.

Golden-winged Warbler Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.08
20260.040.000.08
20270.040.000.08
20280.030.000.07
20290.030.000.07

Where the Golden-winged Warbler Is Detected

BBS routes recording Golden-winged Warbler, sized by most recent count.

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend by State

Golden-winged Warbler population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Connecticutinsufficient datan/a5
Georgiainsufficient datan/a2
Illinoisinsufficient datan/a2
Indianainsufficient datan/a1
Kentuckyinsufficient datan/a3
Maryland-38%197010
Massachusetts-58%196910
Michigan-40%196957
Minnesota+185%196944
New Hampshire+18%19686
New Jersey-73%19756
New York-14%196863
North Carolina-83%197110
Ohioinsufficient datan/a4
Pennsylvania-96%196859
Tennessee-49%19687
Vermont+6%19817
Virginia-85%197110
West Virginia-96%196846
Wisconsin+20%196865

Golden-winged Warbler Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Golden-winged Warbler population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Boreal Hardwood Transition+130%1968104
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-23%196938
Atlantic Northern Forest-84%197015
Prairie Hardwood Transition-57%196861
Appalachian Mountains-98%1968177
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-53%196816

Golden-winged Warbler Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 41% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.