BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-winged Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-winged Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Golden-winged Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.29
20260.110.000.29
20270.110.000.29
20280.110.000.29
20290.110.000.28

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK92024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK41973
OgdensburgNEW-YORK22024
N VictoryNEW-YORK21972
RhinebeckNEW-YORK11971
HighlandNEW-YORK11992
W ShokanNEW-YORK12002
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11968
CatskillsNEW-YORK11990
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12016
TrumansburgNEW-YORK11982
BranchportNEW-YORK11995
Canadice LNEW-YORK12021
MendonNEW-YORK12002
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12003
West SenecaNEW-YORK11982
CastileNEW-YORK11971
RandolphNEW-YORK11972
Cherry HillNEW-YORK11971
NashvilleNEW-YORK11967
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK11998
E YoungstownNEW-YORK11994
N Victory 2NEW-YORK11998
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK11993
WatertownNEW-YORK11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.