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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Golden-winged Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+138%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-winged Warbler has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Golden-winged Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.90–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.90–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.90–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.852.5
20271.70.862.5
20281.70.872.5
20291.70.882.5
20301.70.902.5

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NebishMINNESOTA192025
McgregorMINNESOTA172025
CromwellMINNESOTA162025
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA132022
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN132025
BigforkMINNESOTA122025
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA102024
ChisholmMINNESOTA92024
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA82023
BashawWISCONSIN82025
DebsMINNESOTA62025
BayfieldWISCONSIN62025
GilmanWISCONSIN62025
AmbergWISCONSIN62025
FlambeauWISCONSIN62025
Crane LakeMINNESOTA52025
Nett LakeMINNESOTA52024
MellenWISCONSIN52025
HarriettaMICHIGAN42025
McnaughtonWISCONSIN42024
Popple RiverWISCONSIN42025
HollisterWISCONSIN42025
Hart LakeMINNESOTA32025
CohassetMINNESOTA32022
MahtowaMINNESOTA32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.