BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-winged Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+130%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-winged Warbler has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Golden-winged Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.84–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.84–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.802.4
20261.60.812.4
20271.60.822.4
20281.60.832.4
20291.60.842.5

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN322024
McgregorMINNESOTA172024
NebishMINNESOTA142023
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA132022
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA102024
ChisholmMINNESOTA92024
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA82023
FlambeauWISCONSIN72024
CromwellMINNESOTA62024
Nett LakeMINNESOTA52024
BackusMINNESOTA42024
Grand ViewWISCONSIN42024
GilmanWISCONSIN42024
McnaughtonWISCONSIN42024
AmbergWISCONSIN42024
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN32024
CohassetMINNESOTA32022
MahtowaMINNESOTA32023
Cass LakeMINNESOTA32016
ExelandWISCONSIN32024
Maple GroveMICHIGAN22023
ShingletonMICHIGAN21985
IronsMICHIGAN21986
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN21993
FredericMICHIGAN21993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.