BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-winged Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-84%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-winged Warbler has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2013, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2013TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2013 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±114.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2013, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672013
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20090.000.000.05
20100.000.000.05
20110.000.000.05
20120.000.000.05
20130.000.000.05

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE31983
HighmarketNEW-YORK21983
S WallingfrdVERMONT21981
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS11987
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS11967
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS11979
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE12003
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE11970
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE11969
KasoagNEW-YORK11993
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK12008
Underwood 2NEW-YORK12008
S ReadingVERMONT11978
W RutlandVERMONT12001
FletcherVERMONT11983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.