BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Golden-winged Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-winged Warbler has fallen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Golden-winged Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 81% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-81%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 81% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.35
20270.080.000.35
20280.070.000.34
20290.070.000.34
20300.060.000.33

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA132025
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN82024
CumberlandWISCONSIN62025
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN52024
MerrillWISCONSIN42025
Rolling PrWISCONSIN41975
OlaMICHIGAN21987
RichmondMICHIGAN22024
LoraineWISCONSIN22025
UnityWISCONSIN22025
Stevens PtWISCONSIN22022
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN22005
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN22025
Indiana DuneINDIANA11993
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12022
BravoMICHIGAN11986
Big RapidsMICHIGAN11986
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN11985
MontereyMICHIGAN11988
RemusMICHIGAN12023
MottvilleMICHIGAN11978
No BradleyMICHIGAN12022
JuniataMICHIGAN11999
North BranchMICHIGAN11984
AdairMICHIGAN11985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.