BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-winged Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-winged Warbler has fallen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 83% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-83%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 83% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.34
20260.060.000.33
20270.060.000.32
20280.050.000.32
20290.050.000.31

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN82024
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN52024
UnityWISCONSIN42024
Rolling PrWISCONSIN41975
CumberlandWISCONSIN32024
MerrillWISCONSIN32024
OlaMICHIGAN21987
RichmondMICHIGAN22024
Stevens PtWISCONSIN22022
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN22005
Indiana DuneINDIANA11993
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12022
BravoMICHIGAN11986
Big RapidsMICHIGAN11986
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN11985
MontereyMICHIGAN11988
RemusMICHIGAN12023
MottvilleMICHIGAN11978
No BradleyMICHIGAN12022
JuniataMICHIGAN11999
North BranchMICHIGAN11984
AdairMICHIGAN11985
HungerfordMICHIGAN12014
RochesterMICHIGAN11997
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.