BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-winged Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Golden-winged Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-98%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
177Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-winged Warbler has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Golden-winged Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1200.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1200.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-winged Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1200.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.15
20250.000.000.15
20260.000.000.15
20270.000.000.15
20280.000.000.15

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Golden-winged Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sugar GroveWEST-VIRGINIA61976
Warwick 2NEW-YORK51999
GhentWEST-VIRGINIA51978
Clear CreekWEST-VIRGINIA51998
FontanaNORTH-CAROLINA31984
RectorPENNSYLVANIA31977
Peru MillsPENNSYLVANIA32003
FayettevilleWEST-VIRGINIA31996
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY21978
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY21975
FinzelMARYLAND22013
HopeNEW-JERSEY21971
LaurensNEW-YORK21969
WakenaPENNSYLVANIA21982
Laurel HillPENNSYLVANIA21982
PedroWEST-VIRGINIA22017
HanoverWEST-VIRGINIA21997
RichwoodWEST-VIRGINIA21985
Green BankWEST-VIRGINIA21997
RockportWEST-VIRGINIA21969
MeadowvilleWEST-VIRGINIA22015
BaxterGEORGIA11988
Mountain CtyGEORGIA11981
PhelpsKENTUCKY11979
FloydMARYLAND11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.