BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Worm-eating Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Worm-eating Warbler in New York has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-25%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Worm-eating Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Worm-eating Warbler in New York. See the full index history below.

Worm-eating Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 54% by 2024 — from 0.06 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 54% by 2024 — from 0.06 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.030.000.09
20210.030.000.09
20220.030.000.09
20230.030.000.09
20240.030.000.09

Worm-eating Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Worm-eating Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Middletown319981974
Rhinebeck220152005
Westbrookvle220191980
W Shokan220191969
Westhampton120182018
Bedford119961969
Somers119771977
Highland119941968
Warwick119691968
Rifton119861972
Oxford 2119811981
Austerlitz119981998
Petersburg119721972
Catskills120101993
S Berne119831978
Whitney Pt119691969
Corbettsvile119801980
Oxford119711970
Highmarket120021978
Purdy120171985
Warwick 2120011976
Orange Lake119871987
Dannemora119971997
Downsville119911990

Worm-eating Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.