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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Worm-eating Warbler Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Worm-eating Warbler in Oklahoma has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-7%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Worm-eating Warbler Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Worm-eating Warbler in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Worm-eating Warbler Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 12% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±129.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±129.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 12% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±129.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.070.000.16
20250.070.000.16
20260.070.000.16
20270.070.000.16
20280.070.000.16

Worm-eating Warbler Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Worm-eating Warbler in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hee Mountain220231999
Bethel220062001
Big Cedar119901967
Ouachita Nf120191991
Pushmataha120162016
Mt. Herman120221999
Baron120211977
Peoria119761976
Colcord120142014

Worm-eating Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.