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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Worm-eating Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Worm-eating Warbler in Arkansas has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Worm-eating Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Worm-eating Warbler in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Worm-eating Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in Arkansas is projected to rise about 146% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.20–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+146%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in Arkansas is projected to rise about 146% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.20–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.590.181.0
20260.600.181.0
20270.600.191.0
20280.610.191.0
20290.610.201.0

Worm-eating Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Worm-eating Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marshall520212011
Ramsey419971967
Magazine Mtn320211993
Four Lakes320011994
Rupert320181974
Avoca319671967
Ozark Nf220241991
Boston Mtn.220241994
Blakely219971969
Old Milo119911967
Eudora119781978
Stamps119971984
Hope119871985
Ashdown120012001
Crows119831967
Poyen120031973
Hollywood120161970
Waldron120231996
Hatfield 2120242017
Crowley'S Ridge120132012
Stark119981968
Lurton120231967
Fulton119891989
Compton120221968
Sims120242017

Worm-eating Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.