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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Worm-eating Warbler Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Worm-eating Warbler in Texas has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-2%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Worm-eating Warbler Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Worm-eating Warbler in Texas. See the full index history below.

Worm-eating Warbler Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.05
20250.010.000.05
20260.010.000.05
20270.010.000.05
20280.010.000.05

Worm-eating Warbler Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Worm-eating Warbler in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Waverly620061977
Crossroads320122010
Big Sandy Bith220232022
Town Bluff120101979
Livingston119911981
Oak Grove119881988
Fred120091998
Union Hill119951995
Diboll119891970
Alexander St120181995
Powell Park120051997
Morton119951995

Worm-eating Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.