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Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Worm-eating Warbler Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Worm-eating Warbler in Ohio has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1980.

21×Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Worm-eating Warbler Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Worm-eating Warbler has surged in Ohio: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Worm-eating Warbler Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.12–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.77Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.12–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.740.081.4
20260.740.091.4
20270.750.101.4
20280.760.111.4
20290.770.121.4

Worm-eating Warbler Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Worm-eating Warbler in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar Hollow920241992
Shawnee S.F. 2820192001
Zaleski S.F.520241992
Wayne N.F.320241992
Pike S.F.320001992
Shawnee S.F.220001992
Meadowbrook219951992
Ray220241992
Lockport120102010
Scioto Trail120131992
Tick Ridge120171993
Mohican S.F.120241992
Lenox120102009
Birmingham119911991
Dresden120211980
South Olive120072002
Wilgus120031992
Omega120041997
Bolins Mills120231978
Dell120171994
Pomeroy120221982
Rome119691969
Scioto Furn120212001
Keene120032001

Worm-eating Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.