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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Worm-eating Warbler Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Worm-eating Warbler in Mississippi has surged: up 194% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+194%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Worm-eating Warbler Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Worm-eating Warbler has surged in Mississippi: up 194% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Worm-eating Warbler Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in Mississippi is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.11–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Worm-eating Warbler in Mississippi is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.11–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.080.73
20260.410.090.73
20270.420.100.74
20280.430.100.75
20290.430.110.76

Worm-eating Warbler Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Worm-eating Warbler in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grenada Lake420192016
Vicksburg Np420162016
Trace South420192018
Holly Springs420232018
Trace Hinds320212014
Trace Central320222015
Trace Madison220192015
Columbia219901982
Trace Attala220192016
Trace Choctaw220182018
Corinth220241980
Oak Ridge Vick220192015
Leaf River220082008
Embry220241991
Lake Mary119881976
Beverly120081967
Sandy Creek119941993
Lake Como120132008
Utica120152008
Lucien120131974
Fayette120081977
Cockrum120232023
Trace Lorman120192017
Duck Hill120241988
Forest120062000

Worm-eating Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.