BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Creeper Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Brown Creeper in New York has surged: up 344% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+344%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Creeper Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in New York: up 344% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown Creeper Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in New York is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.83 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.30–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in New York is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.83 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.30–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.550.280.81
20270.550.290.82
20280.560.290.83
20290.570.300.83
20300.570.300.84

Brown Creeper Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Brown Creeper in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wanakena720251983
Mcdonough620171970
Highmarket620251974
Degrasse520251983
Gabriels520251975
W Shokan420181981
Old Forge420061971
Blue Ridge S320101969
North River320251990
Parishville320252005
Catskills220101970
Durham219701970
Platte Cove220181968
Dryden220252009
Mendon220042000
Cattaraugus220191987
N Victory 2220101978
Mckeever220231969
Newcomb220221971
Speculator220251968
S Horicon220161968
Sabattis219831966
Willsboro220241996
Balmat219971978
Crescent220002000

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.