BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Creeper Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Brown Creeper in New York has surged: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+200%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Creeper Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in New York: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown Creeper Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.54 (95% range 0.29–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±124.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.54 (95% range 0.29–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.260.78
20260.530.270.79
20270.530.280.79
20280.540.280.80
20290.540.290.80

Brown Creeper Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Brown Creeper in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcdonough620171970
Gabriels620241975
W Shokan420181981
Old Forge420061971
Pulaski320241987
Blue Ridge S320101969
Catskills220101970
Durham219701970
Platte Cove220181968
Corbettsvile220241985
Mendon220042000
Cattaraugus220191987
N Victory 2220101978
Mckeever220231969
Newcomb220221971
S Horicon220161968
Degrasse220241983
Sabattis219831966
Willsboro220241996
Balmat219971978
Crescent220002000
Oxford 2220241978
Old Forge 2220192007
Westhampton119931993
Rhinebeck120181966

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.