BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Brown Creeper in Minnesota has surged: up 704% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+704%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Creeper Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Minnesota: up 704% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Brown Creeper Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Minnesota is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.13–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Minnesota is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.13–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.120.33
20260.230.120.34
20270.230.130.34
20280.240.130.34
20290.240.130.35

Brown Creeper Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawbill Lndg520241982
Blackduck420222004
Chisholm420242022
Nett Lake320162013
Cromwell220241999
Glendale220232004
Red Lake220231996
Cass Lake120142004
Nebish120222011
Wigwam Bay120212021
Evergreen120222022
Hovland119981992
Lockport120231994
Hart Lake120241983
Floodwood120172002
Cohasset119771977
Debs119861986
Crane Lake120241972
Lude120072004
Waskish119921991
Sawbill Camp120241993
Jordan120221996
Babbitt120061998
Bigfork120242018
Warroad120092003

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.