BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Creeper Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Brown Creeper in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-62%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Creeper Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Brown Creeper Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.21
20270.060.000.21
20280.060.000.20
20290.060.000.20
20300.060.000.20

Brown Creeper Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Brown Creeper in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Claunch719781978
Mt. Taylor 2520242019
Cebolla220051973
Gallinas220171992
Angel Fire220002000
Vallecitos220242004
Ojo Sarco120071978
Reserve120232016
Angel Fire 2120252018
Bluewater Lake120212002
Emory Pass120191997
Claunch 2120052002
Carrizozo120182015
Mcgaffey120252007
Mt. Taylor120041999
Cloudcroft120171981

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.