BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Creeper Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Brown Creeper in North Carolina has increased: up 37% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+37%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Creeper Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Creeper in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Brown Creeper Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in North Carolina is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in North Carolina is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.11
20270.050.000.11
20280.050.000.11
20290.050.000.11
20300.050.000.11

Brown Creeper Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Brown Creeper in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cherokee320252019
Kyle220242012
Waterville120222008
Busick120021994
Highlands120231999
French Broad River120252005
Cullowhee120251977
Linville120031988

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.