BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Brown Creeper in Vermont has surged: up 590% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+590%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Creeper Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Vermont: up 590% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Brown Creeper Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Vermont is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.49–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Vermont is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.49–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.810.441.2
20260.820.451.2
20270.830.471.2
20280.850.481.2
20290.860.491.2

Brown Creeper Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marlboro620241988
Middlesex520241970
East Calais420221968
Grand Isle419851985
Stratton320241975
Landgrove320231972
Newbury 2320232008
W Rutland220191986
North Pownal119921971
S Reading120221968
Gaysville120171966
Post Mills120241969
Shaftsbury120102004
S Wallingfrd120121972
St Johnsbury120241971
East Haven120241994
Northfld Fls120211986
Hardwick120151991
Greensboro120211975
Fletcher120241985
Colchester119901990
Stowe120241991

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.