BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Brown Creeper in Vermont has surged: up 863% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+863%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Creeper Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Vermont: up 863% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Brown Creeper Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Vermont is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.47–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.98Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Vermont is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.47–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.920.411.4
20270.930.431.4
20280.950.441.5
20290.960.461.5
20300.980.471.5

Brown Creeper Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marlboro1020251988
Stratton620251975
Gaysville520251966
Northfld Fls420251986
Fletcher420251985
Grand Isle419851985
Middlesex320251970
Newbury 2320232008
East Calais220251968
North Pownal120251971
Landgrove120251972
S Reading120221968
Post Mills120241969
Shaftsbury120102004
S Wallingfrd120121972
W Rutland120251986
St Johnsbury120241971
East Haven120251994
Hardwick120151991
Greensboro120251975
Colchester119901990
Stowe120241991

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.