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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Brown Creeper in Michigan has surged: up 565% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+565%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Creeper Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Michigan: up 565% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Brown Creeper Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Michigan is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.28–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–0.8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Michigan is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.28–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.510.240.78
20270.520.250.79
20280.530.260.80
20290.540.270.81
20300.550.280.82

Brown Creeper Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harrietta720252019
Marenisco420191981
Gibbs City420251987
Imp Lake420191992
Hiawatha Nf420251992
Ensign420092006
Gooseneck320102009
Raco320251985
Bergland220221988
Herman220151991
Crystal Fls220222004
Shingleton220251981
Walloon Lake 2220242005
Gilchrist220171988
Skegemog Pt220251975
Skeels219921990
Seney Nwr220191992
Sidnaw220251993
Mayfield220252025
Isabella 2220242021
Big Island Lake220102008
Pleasant Valley 2220232014
Ontonagon120121972
Bootjack120092009
Ned Lake120251987

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.