BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Brown Creeper in Michigan has surged: up 408% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+408%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Creeper Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Michigan: up 408% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Brown Creeper Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Michigan is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.25–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Michigan is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.25–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.490.220.75
20260.490.230.76
20270.500.240.77
20280.510.240.78
20290.520.250.79

Brown Creeper Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harrietta520242019
Marenisco420191981
Imp Lake420191992
Ensign420092006
Gooseneck320102009
Bergland220221988
Herman220151991
Crystal Fls220222004
Ishpeming220191981
Walloon Lake 2220242005
Gilchrist220171988
Skeels219921990
Hiawatha Nf220241992
Seney Nwr220191992
Sidnaw220231993
Isabella 2220242021
Big Island Lake220102008
Pleasant Valley 2220232014
Ontonagon120121972
Bootjack120092009
Ned Lake120241987
Gibbs City120241987
Maple Grove120241984
Brocky Lake120231981
Wilson120031981

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.