BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Brown Creeper in Pennsylvania has surged: up 856% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+856%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Creeper Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Creeper in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Brown Creeper Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.12–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.12–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.110.46
20270.290.110.46
20280.290.110.46
20290.290.120.47
20300.290.120.47

Brown Creeper Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Odin520251988
Roulette420211972
Ansonia420252002
Logue320251976
Canadensis320251985
Roulette 2320252023
Ltl Pine Cr320251990
Russell City220251973
Eldred220221987
Rosecrans219801974
Cherry Sprs220101974
Bow Bridge220211980
Poyntelle220251974
Portersville219751973
Mill Run220251979
Espyville120151996
Ellenton120231984
Wyalusing120151986
Whig Hill120251984
Akeley119691969
Teepleville120161990
Sigel120191998
Lynch120251970
Pocono Summit 2120052005
N Pine Grove120241970

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonrhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.