BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Brown Creeper in Pennsylvania has surged: up 682% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+682%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Creeper Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Pennsylvania: up 682% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Brown Creeper Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.11–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.11–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.100.44
20260.270.100.45
20270.280.100.45
20280.280.110.45
20290.280.110.45

Brown Creeper Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roulette420211972
Ansonia420242002
Susquehanna320241974
Lynch220241970
Odin220241988
Eldred220221987
Logue220081976
Rosecrans219801974
Laurel Hill220231988
Cherry Sprs220101974
Bow Bridge220211980
Portersville219751973
Ltl Pine Cr220231990
Espyville120151996
Ellenton120231984
Wyalusing120151986
Whig Hill120231984
Akeley119691969
Teepleville120161990
Sigel120191998
Pocono Summit 2120052005
N Pine Grove120241970
Pottersdale120181973
Betula120071975
Russell City120231973

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonrhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.