BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Creeper Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Brown Creeper in South Dakota has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1998.

+54%Since 1998TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Creeper Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has risen sharply in South Dakota: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1998.

Brown Creeper Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±116.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19962024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.050.000.16
20210.050.000.16
20220.050.000.16
20230.050.000.16
20240.050.000.16

Brown Creeper Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Brown Creeper in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Norbeck420011997
Hill City220131996
Black Fox220172000
Silver City220121999
Rochford120132008
Hazelrodt120102001
Elk Mountain120002000
Long Draw120192012
Wind Cave Np120062006
Custer120111997

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.