BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Brown Creeper in Arizona has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+166%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Creeper Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Arizona: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Brown Creeper Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Arizona is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Arizona is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.000.67
20270.320.000.67
20280.320.000.67
20290.320.000.67
20300.320.000.67

Brown Creeper Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. Graham1120251995
Tsaile520231993
Portal420251979
Mormon Lake419681968
Sunizona319911991
Alpine320252009
Sawmill220051988
Dry Park220251992
Williams220132013
Maine220031995
Forest Lakes220242005
Pinetop220181993
Happy Jack220172002
Carr Mtn220182018
Rucker120071995
Flagstaff120251988
Prescott120221975
Blue119871975
Tonto Vill.120192001
Sprucedale120211992

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.