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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Brown Creeper in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-61%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Creeper Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Brown Creeper Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Alaska is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Alaska is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.000.77
20260.240.000.77
20270.240.000.76
20280.240.000.76
20290.240.000.76

Brown Creeper Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Craig1320181997
Kuiu Island520102009
Hope520241994
Mitkof Isle520241988
Beaver Creek419771977
Zarembo420222000
Hyder419941994
Thorne Bay 2420242021
Swan Lake Rd420232001
Sitka320151994
Yakutat320241993
Juneau220231984
Hoonah220241993
Kalifonsky220181982
Ft. Richrdsn220221994
Cordova220211983
Dillingham220192019
Harlequin L.220241993
Circle119931993
Chiniak120241987
Stikine River120102010
Chena Hot Spring 2120192019
Burma Road120241998
Skilak Lake119771977
Juneau Alt119841984

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.