BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Brown Creeper in Tennessee has surged: up 217% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+217%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown Creeper Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Tennessee: up 217% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Brown Creeper Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Tennessee is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.07–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Tennessee is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.07–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.050.26
20260.160.060.26
20270.160.060.27
20280.170.060.27
20290.170.070.27

Brown Creeper Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cades Cove320231989
Newfound Gap320241990
Fish Springs120011997

Brown Creeper Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.