BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Red Crossbill in New York has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-4%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red Crossbill Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red Crossbill in New York. See the full index history below.

Red Crossbill Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in New York is projected to fall about 55% by 2027 — from 0.18 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±132%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in New York is projected to fall about 55% by 2027 — from 0.18 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.080.000.19
20240.080.000.19
20250.080.000.19
20260.080.000.19
20270.080.000.19

Red Crossbill Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Red Crossbill in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newcomb1420071974
Underwood819831983
Swain 2720222022
Mckeever520121980
Warrensburg519691969
Hamburg419731973
Duanesburg319731973
Dryden320222021
Penfield319731973
Dexter Lake319691969
Phillips Cr219991994
Swain220041985
Randolph219731973
Cicero Ctr219821982
St Regis Fls220111986
Pulaski219771977
Highmarket220162016
N Wilmurt219961976
Inlet220172009
Mcdonough120172017
Cherry Hill119731973
Blue Ridge N119971997
Old Forge119781978
Blue Ridge S119871987
Speculator119871987

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.