Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Red Crossbill Population Trend in Michigan
Red Crossbill in Michigan has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1973.
+51%Since 1973
34Routes In State
38Years
Notable Red Crossbill Trends in Michigan
long arc increasecomputed index
Red Crossbill has risen sharply in Michigan: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1973.
Red Crossbill Population Forecast in Michigan
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Michigan is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-61%Change by 2029
0.43Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.095% range
±100.2%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| 2026 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| 2027 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| 2028 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 1.0 |
| 2029 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 1.0 |
Red Crossbill Survey Routes in Michigan
| Muskallonge | 25 | 2024 | 1981 |
| Brocky Lake | 18 | 2007 | 2007 |
| Gilchrist | 17 | 2016 | 2006 |
| Gibbs City | 15 | 2018 | 1998 |
| Skegemog Pt | 15 | 1980 | 1976 |
| Hiawatha Nf | 13 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Cluster Lakes | 7 | 2007 | 2007 |
| Shingleton | 5 | 2014 | 2006 |
| Imp Lake | 5 | 2018 | 2016 |
| Herman | 4 | 2015 | 2015 |
| Crystal Fls | 4 | 2024 | 1985 |
| Ishpeming | 4 | 1990 | 1984 |
| Hubbard Lake | 4 | 1987 | 1986 |
| Marenisco | 3 | 2018 | 1993 |
| Gooseneck | 3 | 2010 | 2008 |
| Betchler Lks | 3 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Ontonagon | 2 | 2009 | 2009 |
| Bootjack | 2 | 1973 | 1969 |
| Ned Lake | 2 | 2024 | 2012 |
| Hungerford | 2 | 2001 | 2001 |
| Creighton | 2 | 1987 | 1986 |
| Bravo | 2 | 1980 | 1980 |
| Tahquamenon | 2 | 2024 | 1985 |
| Ensign | 2 | 2007 | 2007 |
| Raco | 2 | 2024 | 1995 |
Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.