BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Red Crossbill in Michigan has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+24%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red Crossbill Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red Crossbill in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Red Crossbill Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Michigan is projected to rise about 257% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+257%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Michigan is projected to rise about 257% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.390.000.96
20270.400.000.97
20280.400.000.97
20290.400.000.98
20300.410.000.98

Red Crossbill Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Muskallonge2520241981
Brocky Lake1820072007
Gilchrist1720162006
Skegemog Pt1519801976
Cluster Lakes720072007
Shingleton520142006
Imp Lake520182016
Herman420152015
Crystal Fls420241985
Ishpeming419901984
Hubbard Lake419871986
Marenisco320181993
Gooseneck320102008
Ontonagon220092009
Bootjack219731969
Ned Lake220242012
Gibbs City220251998
Hungerford220012001
Creighton219871986
Bravo219801980
Tahquamenon220241985
Ensign220072007
Raco220241995
Betchler Lks220251993
Maple Grove120141970

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.