BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Michigan has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+51%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red Crossbill Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has risen sharply in Michigan: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Red Crossbill Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Michigan is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Michigan is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.420.000.99
20260.420.000.99
20270.420.001.00
20280.430.001.0
20290.430.001.0

Red Crossbill Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Muskallonge2520241981
Brocky Lake1820072007
Gilchrist1720162006
Gibbs City1520181998
Skegemog Pt1519801976
Hiawatha Nf1320241993
Cluster Lakes720072007
Shingleton520142006
Imp Lake520182016
Herman420152015
Crystal Fls420241985
Ishpeming419901984
Hubbard Lake419871986
Marenisco320181993
Gooseneck320102008
Betchler Lks320241993
Ontonagon220092009
Bootjack219731969
Ned Lake220242012
Hungerford220012001
Creighton219871986
Bravo219801980
Tahquamenon220241985
Ensign220072007
Raco220241995

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.