BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Minnesota has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-82%Since 1974
21Routes In State
28Years

Notable Red Crossbill Trends in Minnesota

long arc declinecomputed index

Red Crossbill has collapsed in Minnesota: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Red Crossbill Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Minnesota is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029
0.13Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.6495% range
±60%Backtest error
19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.140.000.65
20260.140.000.65
20270.140.000.65
20280.130.000.65
20290.130.000.64

Red Crossbill Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Minnesota.
Waskish3019801980
Cohasset1419731973
Sherry Lake1220182018
Wylie1019731973
Nebish720182011
Sawbill Camp720192019
Red Lake620242018
Bigfork320182018
Backus219851985
Pine River219981985
Lockport220191974
Sawbill Lndg220241973
Debs220182018
Crane Lake220222013
Lude220182011
Jordan220181995
Appleton119961996
Cromwell120182015
Hart Lake120011970
Glendale120232007
Chisholm120242019

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.