BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Minnesota has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-82%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red Crossbill Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has collapsed in Minnesota: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Red Crossbill Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Minnesota is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Minnesota is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.65
20260.140.000.65
20270.140.000.65
20280.130.000.65
20290.130.000.64

Red Crossbill Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Waskish3019801980
Cohasset1419731973
Sherry Lake1220182018
Wylie1019731973
Nebish720182011
Sawbill Camp720192019
Red Lake620242018
Bigfork320182018
Backus219851985
Pine River219981985
Lockport220191974
Sawbill Lndg220241973
Debs220182018
Crane Lake220222013
Lude220182011
Jordan220181995
Appleton119961996
Cromwell120182015
Hart Lake120011970
Glendale120232007
Chisholm120242019

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.