BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Red Crossbill in Washington has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+6%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red Crossbill Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red Crossbill in Washington. See the full index history below.

Red Crossbill Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Washington is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 7.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Washington is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 7.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.00.0010
20275.00.0010
20285.00.0010
20295.00.0010
20305.00.0010

Red Crossbill Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Taholah14020221969
Cloverland7820251993
Mendota 24219961990
L Pend O Nwr3620241995
Mukilteo3520151994
Neilton3219751975
Ellensburg2820251988
Malden2820251998
Twin Lakes2620251983
Vashon Is.2420251996
Wilbur2320221984
Laurier2120222000
Turnbull Nwr2120211993
Port Angeles1920251979
Keller1820071968
Camas1820051986
Cusick1720251982
Mazama1620221993
Mendota 31620252006
Sullivan Lake 21320252003
Index 21320222015
Snowden1120252000
Issaquah1019871984
Rimrock1020251968
Spring Lake1020231985

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.