Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Red Crossbill Population Trend in Alaska
Red Crossbill in Alaska has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1987.
-79%Since 1987
30Routes In State
38Years
Notable Red Crossbill Trends in Alaska
long arc declinecomputed index
Red Crossbill has collapsed in Alaska: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1987.
Red Crossbill Population Forecast in Alaska
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Alaska is projected to rise about 151% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±660.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+151%Change by 2029
1.5Projected 2029 index
0.00–5.595% range
±660.7%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.6 | 0.00 | 5.6 |
| 2026 | 1.6 | 0.00 | 5.6 |
| 2027 | 1.6 | 0.00 | 5.6 |
| 2028 | 1.5 | 0.00 | 5.5 |
| 2029 | 1.5 | 0.00 | 5.5 |
Red Crossbill Survey Routes in Alaska
| Yakutat | 150 | 2014 | 1995 |
| Petersburg | 133 | 1987 | 1987 |
| Haines | 21 | 1999 | 1972 |
| Seven Lakes | 20 | 2007 | 2003 |
| Juneau Alt | 14 | 1984 | 1984 |
| Thorne Bay 2 | 13 | 2024 | 2013 |
| Harlequin L. | 10 | 2023 | 1995 |
| Kodiak 2 | 10 | 2024 | 2007 |
| Sitka (Short) | 8 | 1991 | 1991 |
| Thorne Bay | 8 | 2010 | 1990 |
| Hoonah | 7 | 2019 | 1994 |
| Kuiu Island | 5 | 2010 | 2004 |
| Zimovia Strt | 4 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Swan Lake Rd | 4 | 2023 | 2003 |
| Chiniak | 3 | 2023 | 1988 |
| Craig | 3 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Whale Pass | 3 | 2024 | 1997 |
| Zarembo | 3 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Chichagof Is | 3 | 2023 | 1997 |
| Copper River | 3 | 2005 | 1993 |
| Sitka | 3 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Ft. Richrdsn | 2 | 1997 | 1997 |
| Cordova | 2 | 2018 | 2003 |
| Mitkof Isle | 2 | 2022 | 1989 |
| Stikine River | 1 | 2024 | 1998 |
Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.