BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Alaska has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-79%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red Crossbill Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has collapsed in Alaska: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Red Crossbill Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Alaska is projected to rise about 151% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±660.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+151%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±660.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Alaska is projected to rise about 151% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±660.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.005.6
20261.60.005.6
20271.60.005.6
20281.50.005.5
20291.50.005.5

Red Crossbill Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Yakutat15020141995
Petersburg13319871987
Haines2119991972
Seven Lakes2020072003
Juneau Alt1419841984
Thorne Bay 21320242013
Harlequin L.1020231995
Kodiak 21020242007
Sitka (Short)819911991
Thorne Bay820101990
Hoonah720191994
Kuiu Island520102004
Zimovia Strt420241994
Swan Lake Rd420232003
Chiniak320231988
Craig320241994
Whale Pass320241997
Zarembo320241994
Chichagof Is320231997
Copper River320051993
Sitka320241993
Ft. Richrdsn219971997
Cordova220182003
Mitkof Isle220221989
Stikine River120241998

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.