BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Red Crossbill in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-73%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red Crossbill Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Red Crossbill Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Nebraska is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 0.25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±526.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±526.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Nebraska is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 0.25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±526.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.001.8
20270.230.001.7
20280.220.001.7
20290.210.001.7
20300.190.001.7

Red Crossbill Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gordon1519811981
Crawford1020251982
Hay Springs1020192019
Johnstown519901990
Nenzel420242024
Pine Ridge320251999
Hampton220222022
Kimball220222022
Agate 2220252025
Oglala Nat. Grass.220112011
Belvidere120242024
Crookston120212021

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.