BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Wisconsin has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+62%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red Crossbill Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has risen sharply in Wisconsin: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red Crossbill Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±364.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±364.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±364.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.001.4
20260.320.001.4
20270.320.001.4
20280.320.001.4
20290.320.001.4

Red Crossbill Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Irma4020181980
Cadott2019931974
Mcnaughton1520181987
Rhinelander1220192005
Iron River1120241969
Cumberland1020181973
Merrill919801980
Amberg920182016
Minong820181972
Montreal820241990
Mellen820242018
Pt Washingtn819701970
Washington I720241967
Rib Lake520181987
Grand View420241972
Shanagolden419801977
Saxeville420242024
Conover420241999
Bayfield320222014
Phillips319931987
Land O' Lakes 2320242021
Union Twp220241976
Couderay220181973
Eagle River220241975
Hollister219671967

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.