BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Red Crossbill in Oregon has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-23%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red Crossbill Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red Crossbill in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Red Crossbill Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Oregon is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Oregon is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.40.0011
20274.40.0011
20284.40.0011
20294.40.0011
20304.40.0011

Red Crossbill Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mount Vernon12420241986
Sisters7220251997
Wallowa5420252025
Camp Sherman5119961972
Eagle Rock4619791971
Chinchalo3620251993
Logdell3520221972
Silver Creek3520251984
Secret Val3419881988
Howard Mdws.2820251993
Glasgow2720241987
Donnelly2720061995
Donelly 22520252018
Svensen2419921990
Silvies2420241995
Days Creek2220211974
Nicolai Mtn.2020251993
Bald Mtn.2020251992
Black Mtn.2020041998
Newbridge1720251994
Granite1620251986
Trask Summit1520231992
Riley Peak1520141994
Umpqua1420242005
Troy1320251993

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.