BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red Crossbill Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Red Crossbill in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-71%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red Crossbill Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Red Crossbill Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in New Mexico is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in New Mexico is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.380.001.4
20270.380.001.4
20280.370.001.4
20290.360.001.4
20300.360.001.4

Red Crossbill Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Red Crossbill in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Counselor1720012001
Mt. Taylor1420121993
Claunch919991987
Ojo Sarco820251970
Carrizozo720091978
Mcgaffey720251998
Cebolla620171977
Horse Mtn619701970
La Plata619961996
Mt. Taylor 2520242014
Angel Fire520011993
Reserve520251993
Claunch 2420172002
Fence Lake320251977
Angel Fire 2320252007
Stinking Lk.319921992
Gallinas320191994
Pecos220121979
Emory Pass219981998
Dulce120112008
Cloudcroft120221981
Vallecitos120132002
Quemado119961996
Pinon120071999
Bluewater Lake120191999

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.