Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Red Crossbill Population Trend in New Mexico
Red Crossbill in New Mexico has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1977.
-82%Since 1977
25Routes In State
44Years
Notable Red Crossbill Trends in New Mexico
long arc declinecomputed index
Red Crossbill has collapsed in New Mexico: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1977.
Red Crossbill Population Forecast in New Mexico
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in New Mexico is projected to rise about 216% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±288.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+216%Change by 2029
0.34Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.495% range
±288.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 1.4 |
| 2026 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 1.4 |
| 2027 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 1.4 |
| 2028 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 1.4 |
| 2029 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 1.4 |
Red Crossbill Survey Routes in New Mexico
| Counselor | 17 | 2001 | 2001 |
| Mt. Taylor | 14 | 2012 | 1993 |
| Claunch | 9 | 1999 | 1987 |
| Fence Lake | 7 | 2021 | 1977 |
| Carrizozo | 7 | 2009 | 1978 |
| Cebolla | 6 | 2017 | 1977 |
| Horse Mtn | 6 | 1970 | 1970 |
| La Plata | 6 | 1996 | 1996 |
| Ojo Sarco | 5 | 2017 | 1970 |
| Mt. Taylor 2 | 5 | 2024 | 2014 |
| Angel Fire | 5 | 2001 | 1993 |
| Mcgaffey | 5 | 1999 | 1998 |
| Reserve | 5 | 2023 | 1993 |
| Claunch 2 | 4 | 2017 | 2002 |
| Stinking Lk. | 3 | 1992 | 1992 |
| Gallinas | 3 | 2019 | 1994 |
| Pecos | 2 | 2012 | 1979 |
| Emory Pass | 2 | 1998 | 1998 |
| Dulce | 1 | 2011 | 2008 |
| Angel Fire 2 | 1 | 2023 | 2007 |
| Cloudcroft | 1 | 2022 | 1981 |
| Vallecitos | 1 | 2013 | 2002 |
| Quemado | 1 | 1996 | 1996 |
| Pinon | 1 | 2007 | 1999 |
| Bluewater Lake | 1 | 2019 | 1999 |
Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.