BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Maine has surged: up 243% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+243%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red Crossbill Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has surged in Maine: up 243% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Red Crossbill Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Maine is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.01–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Maine is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.01–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.000.78
20260.380.000.78
20270.390.000.79
20280.400.000.80
20290.410.010.81

Red Crossbill Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stacyville1620232023
Charleston720172017
Grnd Lk Strm619921992
Priestly Br.620001998
Bethel520102010
Reeds420242024
Brownfield 2420242024
Wilson Mills320241991
Nesowadnehun320192016
Medway220181991
Andover220182018
Manchester119901990
East Troy119961996
Heron Lake119881988
Brooks119961996
Eastbrook120231989
Cooper120071975
Carrabassett120031983
Forest Sta119671967
Ludlow119741974
Horse Mtn119861986

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoismarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.