BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Red Crossbill in Montana has surged: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+186%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red Crossbill Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has surged in Montana: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Red Crossbill Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.50.005.1
20272.50.005.1
20282.50.005.2
20292.50.005.2
20302.60.005.2

Red Crossbill Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Woodman3620251968
Pryor Mtn.3320241995
Maynard Coulee3120252017
St Mary2519971997
Two Dot2520011985
Chestnut2220171971
Skalkho-Rye2120221999
Libby Dam2020251979
Ninemile1920251993
Clinton1720251981
St Regis1420251979
Cramer Creek1320191997
Victor1220251994
Greenough1220041996
Swan Lake1020252017
Painted Rock1020221993
Pagil Gulch920252015
Heart Butte820172017
Roundup820242021
Threemile Wa720251994
Fish Creek720231995
Elevation Mt620251997
Arlee620251979
Sula620231978
Greenoagh 3620252012

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.