BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Utah has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-3%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red Crossbill Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red Crossbill in Utah. See the full index history below.

Red Crossbill Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Utah is projected to fall about 69% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Utah is projected to fall about 69% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.001.1
20260.230.001.1
20270.210.001.1
20280.200.001.1
20290.190.001.1

Red Crossbill Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fayette3019931993
Richfield1820002000
Wasatch Nf1120241990
Heber Mtn.920241996
La Sal820001999
Beck 2820121994
Navajo Lake520241974
Soapstone520241992
Uintah Nf519941993
La Sal 3420132008
Red Spur Mtn.320232002
Dixie Nf320101993
Main Canyon320072007
Grizzly Rdge220241996
Bryce Canyon220241990
M Warner Res220232023
Gooseberry220001996
Newcastle220092008
Alton220011997
Moon Lake 2120212004
Lost Cr. Res120111995
Saleratus Cr119961996
Beaver120241993
Skyline Driv120151996
Fish Lake Nf120242000

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.