BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Red Crossbill in Utah has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

+11%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red Crossbill Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red Crossbill in Utah. See the full index history below.

Red Crossbill Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Utah is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Utah is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.001.1
20270.230.001.1
20280.210.001.1
20290.200.001.1
20300.180.001.0

Red Crossbill Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fayette3019931993
Richfield1820002000
Wasatch Nf1120241990
Grizzly Rdge920251996
Skyline Driv920251996
La Sal820001999
Beck 2820121994
Navajo Lake520241974
Uintah Nf519941993
Red Spur Mtn.320232002
Dixie Nf320101993
La Sal 3320252008
Main Canyon320072007
Bryce Canyon220241990
Soapstone220251992
M Warner Res220232023
Gooseberry220001996
Newcastle220092008
Alton220011997
Moon Lake 2120212004
Lost Cr. Res120111995
Saleratus Cr119961996
Beaver120241993
Heber Mtn.120251996
Fish Lake Nf120242000

Red Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradogeorgiaidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.