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Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Thrush Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Swainson's Thrush in New York has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Thrush Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Thrush has fallen sharply in New York: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Swainson's Thrush Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in New York is projected to rise about 386% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±323.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+386%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±323.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in New York is projected to rise about 386% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±323.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.330.000.80
20270.330.000.80
20280.320.000.80
20290.320.000.80
20300.320.000.79

Swainson's Thrush Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Swainson's Thrush in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inlet1120171979
Newcomb1020221971
Sabattis919831966
Blue Ridge S520101969
Tupper Lake419761968
St Regis Fls320121976
Hope Falls319951968
Balmat319911980
Platte Cove220111990
Horseshoe L.220161992
Old Forge220061971
S Horicon219911984
W Shokan120121968
Laurens119781978
Mcdonough119971972
Oxford119691969
Lisle120092009
E Newark120142014
Old Forge 2120192007
Cattaraugus119831983
Randolph120121988
Mckeever120211976
Alder Creek119841977
Highmarket120241967
Number Four119921975

Swainson's Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconorth-carolinaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.