BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Thrush Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Swainson's Thrush in New York has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-39%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Thrush Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Thrush in New York. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Thrush Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in New York is projected to rise about 153% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±257.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+153%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±257.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in New York is projected to rise about 153% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±257.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.000.82
20260.350.000.82
20270.340.000.82
20280.340.000.82
20290.340.000.81

Swainson's Thrush Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Swainson's Thrush in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inlet1120171979
Newcomb1020221971
Sabattis919831966
Blue Ridge S520101969
Gabriels420241975
Tupper Lake419761968
St Regis Fls320121976
Hope Falls319951968
Balmat319911980
Platte Cove220111990
Horseshoe L.220161992
Old Forge220061971
Speculator220241966
North River220061966
S Horicon219911984
W Shokan120121968
Laurens119781978
Mcdonough119971972
Oxford119691969
Lisle120092009
E Newark120142014
Old Forge 2120192007
Cattaraugus119831983
Randolph120121988
Mckeever120211976

Swainson's Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconorth-carolinaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.