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Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Thrush Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Swainson's Thrush in Idaho has surged: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+155%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Thrush Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Thrush has surged in Idaho: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Swainson's Thrush Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in Idaho is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.2–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.2–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in Idaho is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.2–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.716
2027127.816
2028127.916
2029128.116
2030128.216

Swainson's Thrush Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Swainson's Thrush in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lolo Pass9620191992
Avery7120251979
Pierce5320071990
Deep Creek4419851985
Coolin4320251986
Grangeville4220251986
Marble Creek4220251988
N Fork Cda R3620191993
Baldy Mountain3320162013
Naples3020251972
Golden3020161987
Rochat Divde2420251993
Mivoden2020251977
Sunbeam2020251994
Centerville1920251972
Cape Horn1620251986
Cabarton1520241985
Cascade1119841983
Silver City1020141993
Alturas919871968
Magic Mtn920251987
Burgdorf920251988
Challis820251990
Nezperce720121968
Featherville720251990

Swainson's Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.