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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Thrush Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Swainson's Thrush in Minnesota has surged: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+202%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swainson's Thrush Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Thrush has surged in Minnesota: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Swainson's Thrush Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in Minnesota is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.63–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Thrush in Minnesota is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.63–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.581.8
20261.20.591.8
20271.20.601.8
20281.20.611.8
20291.20.631.9

Swainson's Thrush Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Swainson's Thrush in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawbill Camp2820241993
Jordan1320231993
Hovland920241973
Sawbill Lndg420241973
Debs420121987
Cass Lake319951980
Nebish219951982
Cromwell220041967
Mille Lacs219981994
Pine River219771977
Lockport220241967
Little Fork219811972
Blackduck220102010
Warroad219931993
Edwards119971989
Hart Lake120241969
Floodwood119791968
Sherry Lake120222018
Bemidji119801980
Crane Lake120211971
Lude120171980
Waskish119891985
Nett Lake120182018
Mcgregor120151993
Babbitt120212000

Swainson's Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoismainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.