BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Marsh Wren Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Marsh Wren in New York has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Marsh Wren Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Marsh Wren in New York. See the full index history below.

Marsh Wren Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in New York is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±118.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in New York is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.23
20260.100.000.23
20270.100.000.23
20280.100.000.23
20290.100.000.23

Marsh Wren Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Marsh Wren in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Philadelphia820241980
Jones Beach320061966
Westhampton220061969
Cicero Ctr219951966
Underwood 2220082007
North Easton220171974
Huntington120191975
Rhinebeck120152008
Warwick119741968
Rifton119861986
W Shokan119891989
Petersburg119901990
Ballston Lk119701967
Harris Hill120222005
S Berne119971997
Oriskany Fls120052005
Phillips Cr119681967
Orleans120122012
Mendon120171987
West Seneca120041966
Cattaraugus119721972
Castile120172017
Randolph119681967
Byron120231969
Churchville119681968

Marsh Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.