BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Marsh Wren Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Marsh Wren in Idaho has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-53%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Marsh Wren Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Marsh Wren has fallen sharply in Idaho: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Marsh Wren Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in Idaho is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in Idaho is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.24
20260.080.000.24
20270.070.000.24
20280.070.000.24
20290.070.000.23

Marsh Wren Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Marsh Wren in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Springfield320181980
Naples220241973
Cabarton220051999
Blacks Creek220121989
Picabo220141988
Bates220192019
Blackft Res120132009
Preston120231988
Baker120162009
Pasadena Val120141995
Crane Creek120032003
Iron Springs119891989
Acequia120022002
Henry119831983
Coolin120182018

Marsh Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.