BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Marsh Wren Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Marsh Wren in Texas has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-55%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Marsh Wren Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Marsh Wren in Texas. See the full index history below.

Marsh Wren Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.010.000.03
20240.010.000.03
20250.010.000.03
20260.010.000.03
20270.010.000.03

Marsh Wren Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Marsh Wren in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indianola219961996
Danbury219851980
Winnie120131996
Bayside 2120042004
Port Acres120221994

Marsh Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.