BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Marsh Wren Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Marsh Wren in Nebraska has surged: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+121%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Marsh Wren Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Marsh Wren has surged in Nebraska: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Marsh Wren Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in Nebraska is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 0.65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±522.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±522.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Marsh Wren in Nebraska is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 0.65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±522.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.940.002.5
20270.950.002.5
20280.960.002.5
20290.960.002.5
20300.970.002.5

Marsh Wren Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Marsh Wren in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crescent Lk2520251980
Nenzel820252019
Chambers420232023
Mullen320232017
Piester Lake319921968
Agate 2220112011
Brownlee220252010
Richland220162016
Wheeler Co220252010
Gordon120112011
Murray Lake120182003
Surprise120212021
Gretna 2120252025
Dalton119741974
Sparta120251967
Swan Lake120001997
Johnstown119991995
Kennedy120221995

Marsh Wren Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.