BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Hermit Thrush in New York has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hermit Thrush Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hermit Thrush in New York. See the full index history below.

Hermit Thrush Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in New York is projected to rise about 225% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.4–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+225%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±217.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in New York is projected to rise about 225% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.4–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.61.26.0
20263.61.36.0
20273.71.36.1
20283.71.36.1
20293.81.46.1

Hermit Thrush Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sabattis2019831966
Blue Ridge S1920101969
Inlet1820171979
Old Forge1520061972
Petersburg1420131966
Old Forge 21320192007
Highmarket1220241967
North River1220071966
Hope Falls1119951968
Balmat1120081977
Parishville1020241986
Downsville1020191982
Horseshoe L.1020171992
Platte Cove920181968
Huntington819811972
Gabriels820241975
St Regis Fls820171977
Underwood 2820092005
Dexter Lake719751968
Dannemora720061968
Sciota720061974
Blue Ridge N620241969
Hopkinton620211969
Cooperstown519691969
Mckeever520231969

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.