BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Arizona has surged: up 448% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+448%Since 1970
23Routes In State
54Years

Notable Hermit Thrush Trends in Arizona

long arc increasecomputed index

Hermit Thrush has surged in Arizona: up 448% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hermit Thrush Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Arizona is projected to rise about 307% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.95–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+307%Change by 2029
3.8Projected 2029 index
0.95–6.795% range
±113.7%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.70.816.6
20263.70.846.6
20273.80.886.7
20283.80.916.7
20293.80.956.7

Hermit Thrush Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Arizona.
Tsaile3420231993
Mt. Graham3020231995
Dry Park2920241992
Aztec Peak1119781974
Alpine1120231992
Rucker920091993
Prescott520221976
Blue519911974
Mormon Lake419751968
Sprucedale420231992
Flagstaff320221988
Sawmill320141988
Williams320191999
Tonto Vill.320191992
Pinetop320141993
Carr Mtn320111986
Portal220241977
Happy Jack220241985
Dragoon119961996
Maine120091992
Forest Lakes120161992
Sunizona 2120102010
Clay Spring120032003

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.