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Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Oregon has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hermit Thrush Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hermit Thrush in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Hermit Thrush Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Oregon is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.2–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Oregon is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.2–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.13.29.1
20266.13.29.1
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20296.13.29.1

Hermit Thrush Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clearwater5020211991
Barnhouse3920241998
Ochoco3619821972
Paunina3520241993
Bald Mtn.3420241992
Black Mtn.3020041993
Warner Mtn.2620241992
Hash Rock2520241983
Shellrock2120231968
Cool Camp2120131968
Mt Hood2020241972
Donnelly2020061994
Ruch1820231992
Silver Creek1620241984
Blue River1620241992
Cinderella1420241993
Donelly 21420242018
Logdell1320241971
Scio1320021972
Davis Lake1320242000
Eagle Creek1320221993
Howard Mdws.1220241992
Monument1220241993
Desolation1220071993
Flora1120231986

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.