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Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Oregon has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hermit Thrush Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hermit Thrush in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Hermit Thrush Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Oregon is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 3.1–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Oregon is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 3.1–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.03.18.9
20276.03.19.0
20286.03.19.0
20296.03.19.0
20306.03.19.0

Hermit Thrush Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ochoco3619821972
Shellrock3020241968
Black Mtn.3020041993
Bald Mtn.2720251992
Barnhouse2620251998
Paunina2620251993
Silver Creek2320251984
Cool Camp2120131968
Hash Rock2120251983
Clearwater2020251991
Donnelly2020061994
Howard Mdws.1920251992
Desolation1820251993
Davis Lake1620252000
Donelly 21520252018
Ochoco1420251993
Scio1320021972
Lobster Creek1220252025
Albee1120251968
Flora1120231986
Salado1120051968
Granite1120251986
Hazel Camp1120221975
Monument1120251993
Wallowa1020252025

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.