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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Michigan has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+72%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hermit Thrush Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hermit Thrush has risen sharply in Michigan: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hermit Thrush Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Michigan is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 6.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Michigan is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 6.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.35.813
20269.46.013
20279.56.113
20289.66.213
20299.86.313

Hermit Thrush Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Betchler Lks5420241992
Sidnaw4420241993
Gooseneck3720102008
Cluster Lakes3420102006
Gibbs City2720241979
Brocky Lake2720241980
Ensign2620102006
Muskallonge2520241966
Pine River2520211992
Scott'S Marsh2520102006
Big Island Lake2520102008
Seney Nwr2020241992
Raco1820241971
Marenisco1720191981
Red Oak1620221979
Creighton1520231978
Brush Creek1420161974
Wilson1320101966
Hiawatha Nf1320241992
Cunard1120211973
Frederic 21120172004
Sand Lake1120241978
Isabella 21120242013
Frederic920031971
Crystal Fls820241982

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.