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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Michigan has surged: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hermit Thrush Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hermit Thrush has surged in Michigan: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hermit Thrush Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Michigan is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.7 (95% range 6.2–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Michigan is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.7 (95% range 6.2–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.25.713
20279.35.813
20289.45.913
20299.56.013
20309.76.213

Hermit Thrush Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Betchler Lks4120251992
Gooseneck3720102008
Cluster Lakes3420102006
Creighton2720251978
Ensign2620102006
Brocky Lake2520251980
Muskallonge2520241966
Pine River2520211992
Sidnaw2520251993
Scott'S Marsh2520102006
Big Island Lake2520102008
Raco1820251971
Marenisco1720191981
Gibbs City1720251979
Tahquamenon1620251974
Red Oak1620221979
Hiawatha Nf1620251992
Isabella 21620252013
Sand Lake1520251978
Brush Creek1420161974
Wilson1320101966
Cunard1120211973
Frederic 21120172004
Seney Nwr1120251992
Ishpeming1020251980

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoindianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.