BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Utah has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+20%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hermit Thrush Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hermit Thrush in Utah. See the full index history below.

Hermit Thrush Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Utah is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 1.9–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Utah is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 1.9–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.31.76.8
20274.31.86.9
20284.41.86.9
20294.41.87.0
20304.51.97.0

Hermit Thrush Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ferron3920252000
Navajo Lake3220251970
La Sal2420001993
Red Spur Mtn.2320231997
Grizzly Rdge2120251987
Wasatch Nf2120241988
La Sal 22020062003
Monticello1920251998
Soapstone1620251992
Heber Mtn.1620251996
Beck1519871968
Uintah Nf1419941988
La Sal 31420252007
Logan Canyon1020191997
Skyline Driv920251986
Beck 2920251990
Moon Lake720031994
Gooseberry720251994
Book Ridge620062003
Fayette620251992
Cleveland620001992
Hyrum519771975
Richfield520191994
Moon Lake 2420232004
Beaver420251968

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.