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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Hermit Thrush in West Virginia has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

20×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hermit Thrush Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hermit Thrush has surged in West Virginia: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Hermit Thrush Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.73–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.73–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.73–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.641.7
20261.20.661.7
20271.20.691.7
20281.20.711.8
20291.30.731.8

Hermit Thrush Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glady1320242001
Glade Run 21320242003
Bemis820242001
Glade Run520021988
Green Bank420241980
Denmar320242001
Bowden219951993
Meadowville220151999
Martinsburg219821982
Pedro120232023
Ghent120031999
Wymer120151995
Bismark120191980
Canaan120241999
Valley Head120231986
Three Forks119941994
Cedarville119871987
Richwood120241981
Dailey120241975
Mo Of Seneca120011999

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.