BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Maine

All statesForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Maine has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hermit Thrush Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hermit Thrush in Maine. See the full index history below.

Hermit Thrush Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Maine is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 6.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 3.8–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Maine is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 6.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 3.8–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.13.713
20268.13.713
20278.13.713
20288.23.713
20298.23.813

Hermit Thrush Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Northfield3519811976
Carrying Pl3320241979
Seboomook Lk3220141972
Heron Lake2620031985
Cooper2420211975
Charleston2320191975
Baker Lake 22220132010
Nesowadnehun2120211990
Weeks Brook1920161995
Clayton Lake1820081977
Eastbrook1720241971
Big Twenty 21720092009
Deblois1620071966
Hudson1620161973
Telos1620061995
Reeds1520241990
Medway1520181976
Grnd Lk Strm1520001966
Brownfield1520092009
Brooks1420191977
Baker Lake1320091994
Wilson Mills1220241983
Manchester1219951971
Aurora1220211975
Wytopitlock1219981976

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.